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楼市尚未全面回暖

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月26日 07:57:33
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(  对)(于)(当)(前)(楼)(市)(而)(言)(,大)(家)(最)(关)(注)(的)(是)(2014年)(“暖)(冬)(”能)(否)(延)(续)(到)(2015年)(“小)(阳)(春)(”,并)(带)(动)(全)(国)(楼)(市)(整)(体)(向)(上)(。2014年)(最)(后)(三)(个)(月)(,全)(国)(主)(要)(城)(市)(楼)(市)(成)(交)(回)(升)(态)(势)(明)(显)(,平)(均)(而)(言)(,主)(要)(城)(市)(月)(平)(均)(成)(交)(量)(环)(比)(回)(升)(在)(15%左)(右)(。2014年)(12月)(回)(升)(趋)(势)(更)(加)(明)(显)(,根)(据)(中)(国)(指)(数)(研)(究)(院)(监)(测)(数)(据)(,当)(月)(全)(国)(54个)(主)(要)(城)(市)(新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(房)(成)(交)(31.8万)(套)(,创)(2014年)(以)(来)(的)(单)(月)(新)(高)(,其)(中)(一)(线)(城)(市)(成)(交)(5.37万)(套)(,环)(比)(增)(长)(38%。  按)(照)(新)(开)(工)(滞)(后)(销)(售)(6个)(月)(、房)(企)(拿)(地)(滞)(后)(于)(销)(售)(12个)(月)(的)(一)(般)(规)(律)(,新)(开)(工)(和)(房)(企)(土)(地)(购)(置)(有)(望)(2015年)(年)(中)(和)(年)(底)(触)(底)(回)(升)(、止)(跌)(反)(弹)(。事)(实)(上)(,从)(2008-2009年)(和)(2011-2012年)(这)(两)(轮)(楼)(市)(调)(整)(规)(律)(看)(,上)(述)(对)(于)(未)(来)(新)(开)(工)(和)(房)(企)(土)(地)(购)(置)(走)(势)(的)(判)(断)(是)(成)(立)(的)(。若)(新)(开)(工)(和)(土)(地)(购)(置)(能)(够)(企)(稳)(,意)(味)(着)(增)(速)(创)(近)(5年)(最)(低)(点)(、连)(续)(10个)(月)(下)(滑)(、占)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(25%、关)(联)(近)(一)(半)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(的)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(投)(资)(将)(会)(企)(稳)(回)(升)(,这)(对)(于)(“努)(力)(保)(持)(经)(济)(稳)(定)(增)(长)(”任)(务)(来)(说)(,意)(义)(重)(大)(。  但)(是)(,关)(于)(楼)(市)(销)(售)(回)(升)(并)(带)(动)(新)(开)(工)(和)(拿)(地)(触)(底)(反)(弹)(的)(判)(断)(,可)(能)(有)(点)(乐)(观)(。首)(先)(是)(对)(于)(回)(暖)(的)(判)(断)(,目)(前)(楼)(市)(回)(暖)(仅)(限)(于)(主)(要)(城)(市)((特)(别)(是)(一)(线)(城)(市)()。但)(从)(全)(国)(来)(看)(,2014年)(1-11月)(份)(,全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(101717万)(平)(方)(米)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(8.2%,降)(幅)(比)(1-10月)(份)(扩)(大)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,目)(前)(全)(国)(楼)(市)(下)(滑)(的)(态)(势)(并)(无)(企)(稳)(迹)(象)(。  与)(过)(往)(“政)(策)(激)(励)(-主)(要)(城)(市)(回)(暖)(-全)(国)(回)(暖)(”的)(一)(般)(规)(律)(不)(同)(,当)(前)(楼)(市)(回)(暖)(仅)(限)(于)(主)(要)(城)(市)(,全)(国)(楼)(市)(整)(体)(对)(于)(政)(策)(刺)(激)(的)(弹)(性)(下)(降)(了)(很)(多)(。制)(约)(政)(策)(效)(果)(或)(全)(国)(销)(售)(回)(升)(的)(主)(要)(障)(碍)(,就)(在)(于)(需)(求)(和)(库)(存)(两)(个)(方)(面)(。  从)(需)(求)(看)(,截)(至)(2014年)(底)(,全)(国)(城)(镇)(居)(民)(家)(庭)(住)(房)(拥)(有)(达)(到)(1.1套)(/户)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(,城)(镇)(住)(房)(供)(求)(格)(局)(已)(经)(开)(始)(逆)(转)(,即)(从)(原)(来)(的)(供)(不)(应)(求)(趋)(向)(于)(供)(求)(平)(衡)(甚)(至)(是)(供)(过)(于)(求)(。如)(果)(将)(小)(产)(权)(房)(、集)(资)(建)(房)(、军)(产)(房)(、集)(体)(宿)(舍)(等)(没)(有)(纳)(入)(统)(计)(的)(存)(量)(房)(屋)(算)(在)(内)(,就)(全)(国)(来)(看)(,住)(房)(供)(过)(于)(求)(的)(结)(论)(是)(成)(立)(的)(,住)(房)(需)(求)(大)(规)(模)(释)(放)(阶)(段)(已)(经)(过)(去)(。  需)(求)(结)(构)(也)(能)(说)(明)(问)(题)(,目)(前)(关)(于)(房)(地)(产)(大)(周)(期)(下)(行)(的)(观)(点)(基)(本)(上)(得)(到)(认)(同)(,作)(为)(驱)(动)(过)(去)(10多)(年)(楼)(市)(繁)(荣)(的)(重)(要)(力)(量)(,投)(资)(需)(求)(开)(始)(退)(场)(。目)(前)(,主)(要)(城)(市)(首)(套)(房)(购)(置)(比)(例)(在)(80%以)(上)(,也)(就)(是)(所)(谓)(的)(“刚)(需)(”占)(主)(导)(,家)(庭)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(对)(需)(求)(首)(要)(决)(定)(作)(用)(开)(始)(体)(现)(。根)(据)(《中)(国)(民)(政)(统)(计)(年)(鉴)(2013》,2002年)(以)(来)(一)(线)(及)(二)(线)(重)(点)(城)(市)(房)(价)(涨)(幅)(超)(过)(收)(入)(涨)(幅)(,住)(房)(需)(求)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(这)(些)(城)(市)(人)(口)(;而)(其)(他)(城)(市)(,2002年)(以)(来)(收)(入)(涨)(幅)(与)(房)(价)(涨)(幅)(基)(本)(持)(平)(,但)(这)(些)(城)(市)(常)(住)(家)(庭)((特)(别)(是)(户)(籍)(人)(口)()住)(房)(自)(有)(率)(在)(80%以)(上)(,超)(过)(20%的)(家)(庭)(拥)(有)(两)(套)(住)(房)(。因)(此)(,占)(全)(国)(市)(场)(份)(额)((需)(求)(量)()超)(过)(80%的)(城)(镇)(,若)(收)(入)(或)(常)(住)(人)(口)(短)(期)(内)(没)(有)(明)(显)(增)(长)(,住)(房)(需)(求)(潜)(力)(空)(间)(有)(限)(。  制)(约)(需)(求)(的)(另)(一)(个)(因)(素)(就)(是)(房)(价)(。过)(去)(几)(年)(,全)(国)(城)(镇)(综)(合)(地)(价)(上)(涨)(幅)(度)(是)(名)(义)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(幅)(度)(的)(2倍)(以)(上)(,建)(筑)(人)(工)(成)(本)(在)(2009年)(以)(来)(翻)(了)(一)(倍)(,房)(地)(产)(融)(资)(的)(财)(务)(成)(本)(则)(上)(升)(了)(1.5倍)(,而)(仅)(占)(房)(价)(20%以)(下)(的)(建)(材)(成)(本)(基)(本)(上)(没)(什)(么)(变)(化)(。2002年)(以)(来)(,房)(价)(始)(终)(处)(于)(上)(涨)(的)(态)(势)(,全)(国)(城)(镇)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(了)(136%,主)(要)(城)(市)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(了)(303%。尽)(管)(2014年)(以)(来)(房)(价)(开)(始)(回)(落)(,但)(由)(于)(成)(本)(刚)(性)(制)(约)(,全)(国)(房)(价)(跌)(幅)(在)(10%以)(内)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,70%的)(地)(价)(上)(涨)(部)(分)(发)(生)(在)(2011年)(以)(来)(的)(4年)(内)(。因)(此)(,未)(来)(一)(段)(时)(间)(内)(,房)(企)(主)(动)(降)(价)(的)(幅)(度)(比)(较)(小)(,这)(成)(为)(制)(约)(需)(求)(入)(市)(的)(另)(一)(个)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。  再)(看)(库)(存)(。尽)(管)(主)(要)(城)(市)(房)(屋)(销)(售)(明)(显)(回)(升)(,特)(别)(是)(临)(近)(年)(底)(,开)(发)(商)(基)(于)(业)(绩)(压)(力)(而)(加)(大)(营)(销)(力)(度)(,但)(2014年)(最)(后)(三)(个)(月)(,主)(要)(城)(市)(的)(库)(存)(总)(体)(上)(升)(。根)(据)(易)(居)(房)(地)(产)(研)(究)(院)(数)(据)(,截)(至)(2014年)(12月)(,36个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(待)(售)(商)(品)(住)(房)(存)(销)(比)(为)(15个)(月)(,库)(存)(压)(力)(比)(较)(大)(,事)(实)(上)(这)(是)(在)(延)(缓)(入)(市)(节)(奏)(的)(情)(况)(下)(实)(现)(的)(。二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(的)(库)(存)(问)(题)(就)(更)(严)(重)(,很)(多)(城)(市)(的)(待)(售)(房)(屋)(够)(2年)(左)(右)(销)(售)(。  在)(建)(库)(存)(的)(压)(力)(也)(不)(容)(小)(觑)(。根)(据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(的)(数)(据)(,截)(至)(2014年)(11月)(底)(,全)(国)(处)(于)(施)(工)(状)(态)(的)(商)(品)(住)(房)(面)(积)(超)(过)(50亿)(平)(方)(米)(,其)(中)(90%的)(部)(分)(没)(有)(卖)(出)(去)(。按)(照)(目)(前)(城)(镇)(人)(均)(住)(房)(面)(积)(33平)(方)(米)(计)(算)(,可)(以)(解)(决)(1.5亿)(人)(的)(住)(房)(需)(求)(。事)(实)(上)(,这)(还)(没)(有)(包)(括)(新)(增)(的)(小)(产)(权)(房)(、保)(障)(房)(等)(,也)(没)(有)(包)(括)(已)(经)(批)(准)(但)(未)(开)(工)(建)(设)(的)(土)(地)(。很)(多)(中)(小)(城)(市)(地)(方)(财)(政)(实)(力)(不)(足)(,土)(地)(出)(让)(采)(取)(一)(二)(级)(联)(动)(的)(模)(式)(,即)(政)(府)(以)(土)(地)(换)(取)(开)(发)(商)(代)(建)(配)(套)(,很)(多)(土)(地)(处)(于)(已)(经)(批)(准)(但)(未)(开)(工)(建)(设)(的)(状)(态)(。  由)(于)(过)(去)(十)(多)(年)(房)(价)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(,住)(房)(需)(求)(膨)(胀)(,刺)(激)(各)(路)(资)(本)(纷)(纷)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(领)(域)(,房)(企)(数)(量)(从)(2002年)(的)(不)(足)(4万)(家)(增)(加)(到)(2013年)(的)(8万)(家)(。地)(方)(政)(府)(也)(乐)(于)(出)(让)(更)(多)(的)(土)(地)(,考)(虑)(到)(开)(发)(周)(期)(滞)(后)(和)(有)(效)(住)(房)(需)(求)((可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(决)(定)(的)(住)(房)(需)(求)(、自)(住)(需)(求)(决)(定)(的)(住)(房)(需)(求)()被)(夸)(大)(,从)(而)(造)(成)(住)(房)(供)(应)(过)(剩)(。因)(此)(,即)(便)(主)(要)(城)(市)(回)(暖)(,但)(全)(国)(楼)(市)(将)(继)(续)(延)(续)(弱)(势)(的)(局)(面)(,开)(发)(商)(消)(化)(库)(存)(是)(主)(要)(任)(务)(,而)(不)(是)(像)(往)(常)(一)(样)(扩)(大)(新)(开)(工)(和)(拿)(地)(。  因)(此)(,新)(开)(工)(和)(拿)(地)(企)(稳)(复)(苏)(滞)(后)(于)(销)(售)(回)(升)(的)(周)(期)(会)(比)(过)(去)(要)(长)(得)(多)(。2014年)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(住)(宅)(用)(地)(出)(让)(金)(同)(比)(增)(长)(54.8%,而)(全)(国)(300个)(城)(市)(土)(地)(出)(让)(金)(则)(下)(滑)(了)(27%。这)(说)(明)(,即)(便)(房)(企)(主)(动)(补)(库)(存)(,也)(基)(本)(集)(中)(在)(一)(线)(和)(少)(数)(热)(点)(二)(线)(城)(市)(。未)(来)(,需)(要)(政)(府)(推)(进)(公)(共)(服)(务)(均)(等)(化)(和)(全)(覆)(盖)(,推)(进)(户)(籍)(制)(度)(改)(革)(,这)(是)(推)(进)(人)(口)(向)(城)(市)(集)(中)(、提)(高)(购)(买)(力)(的)(根)(本)(之)(道)(,也)(是)(驱)(动)(新)(开)(工)(和)(投)(资)(见)(底)(回)(升)(的)(根)(本)(之)(道)(。
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